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Does Climate Alter lead to Excessive Weather conditions?

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In the previous two a long time or so we have observed quite a few headlines about severe weather occasions: floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes. In some scenarios, climate scientists claim they can “attribute” individuals excessive temperature activities to local weather adjust. But what precisely does that signify? How does just one work out this? And how dependable are people estimates? This movie is a short intro into the youthful research space of serious party attribution.

The BBC post I point out at 1 min 23 seconds is below:

And the Nature post I quote right soon after this is here:

The Character comment from Myles Allen which I point out at 1 min 47 secs is in this article:

The review short article about intense celebration attribution which I point out a number of instances (and which is quite recommendable) is available listed here:

The CNN write-up with the Michael Mann estimate that I show at 8 minutes is in this article:

And the quote I read through at 11 mins 20 seconds is from listed here:

You can help our channel on Patreon:

:00 Intro
:49 What is Excessive Celebration Attribution?
4:12 What do the quantities signify?
5:05 Problem 1: Celebration courses are ambiguous
6:47 Trouble 2: Styles underestimate tails
12:16 Sponsor message

#science #climate

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#intense #extremeweather #lightning #weather conditions #weatherwtf


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343 Points

Written by weatherwtf

Comments

  1. Sorry for the pained face in this video. I have an acute back problem and it was particularly bad when I recorded this footage. (Seeing a doc on Monday, fingers crossed he has something intelligent to say.)

  2. What gets me are those that say space is fake and climate change is fake no matter evidence …and this includes all climates on all planets through history. Any how people will push religion, politics, and group views for power or personal gain at times with some. Ah human history of so many stories like King Midas…but any how in the end I am ok just to face things as they are in reality where many are not on any side they pick. Things are not always as they seem or so simple with people.

  3. Like all other climate alarmists that demand radical changes to the way we live our lives, Friederike Otto and Jan van Oldenborgh are both members of the World Economic Forum. What a surprise.

  4. While a firm believer in science,scientists have failed in effectively communicating the fact that while climate change happens naturally across longer time scales,humans have accelerated that process due to pollution at a pace that the Earth cannot keep up with.

  5. Hi sabine, pls answer this question….is change in temperature purely responsible for all extreme events. Is global warming only man made or is it pattern of nature where contribution from human is far too less to have any meaningful positive or negative impact….if it is due to pattern followed by nature will the events frequency reach a peak point and then decrease …what temp should we expect at peak point of event occurance

  6. Sounds like they threw out the models that didn't agree with their agenda. They can't predict the weather for more than a week out and yet we're to believe their models?

  7. So I understood from this that that climate models have limitations. What I didn’t get is the conclusion: So models are used for budgeting. Is it wrong for governments to prepare for more drought and fires, because our models might be incorrect? Or are you saying they aren’t preparing enough, because it might be much worse?

  8. It also may not be increasing. We can only "see" a window of what has happened and what may happen. Think of a sinusoid. We could be "looking" at Pi/8 and seeing things increase but in the future(say 4Pi/5) things will decrease. That is, there is a natural ebb and flow due to the negative feedback systems that make up the universe. But people go insane because they think everything will continue in the same direction(linear extrapolation) which is not actually the case. They just fail to realize that the climate actually changes and will always change and evolve and it is just what it is. But some are stupid, others are smart and realize they can make $$$ pushing the snake oil. I mean, clearly if climate change is being over hyped then a lot of people have made a killing off pushing it(e.g., Al Gore). If it is a real thing and humans are causing it then chances are we won't fix it until forced because humanity isn't going to change it's ways for no reason. This doesn't mean we shouldn't be less wasteful and all that but I think a lot of people have no perspective when it comes to, well, most things. Basically modern humanity has an unhealthy dose of sociopathy and that is the real problem we face. If we don't fix the psychological issues we face as a species everything we complain about or want won't matter. I mean, literally we are fighting wars still,, literally we let individuals steal billions for themselves while children go without proper education. Literally we punish some people with years of their life thrown away(which means their entire life is ruined, generally speaking) while letting others(usually rich) get away with murder.

    The world is upside down and until we right it everything we do for the future will be pointless. Lunatics and morons are in control and until we have some system(which math and science can design) that fixes these things we will never get very far(compared to what we can achieve).

  9. I doubt some lay people, climate change deniers commenting in this video really understood what were you talking about. These are people who believe CO2 emission produced from burning dirty fossil fuels 1000x more than 8-10 billions of human could possibly exhale through their breathing, they conclude the earth will be doing just fine for at least 100 000 years to come 😂

  10. The main problem is the extreme events and climate change are happening to us. I think being risk-averse in this case is a good thing. We should not wait to perfect our models by observing more disasters because the disasters are happening to us.

  11. What is your opinion on claims that IPCC report’s summary exaggerates the technical contents of the report itself and this resume is blown up by politicians and media, I’m talking particularly Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’ book, he was Obama’s under secretary of science and energy.

  12. Pre-industrial versus post-industrial. What about pre-human levels. What about epochs in Earth's history when the poles were liquid and average global temps were far above current levels? Is CO2 the only lever on the control board and are humans the only factor (ever) that can or did ever effect climate change and/or rising average global temps? Why is the human the only change agent in this matter that we ever hear about?

  13. The likelihood of the smaller event becoming an extreme event from past data, could be through a ratio of Smaller to extreme events, transferred to a probability of a smaller event becoming an extreme event. If the climate models can predict the smaller events, and the past data is accurate then i see no reason that the probability of an extreme event cannot be calculated.

  14. I dont know about the rest, but for someone like me a 1 degree increase in temperature means a hell of alot of energy being absorb into the environment. And this energy needs to go somewhere. But the worst about this is the feedback loop and how it will eventually means the end.

    Its always the deniers that makes something that is severe a walk in the park.

  15. Science has been completely discredited during the last three years. It’s lovely to have a level headed analysis. However whenever science is used to justify policy it becomes political and there are always two sides to every story

  16. in 2005 we had 15 hurricanes with 7 being major hurricanes. The media at the time was screaming that the models for the following year would be double and that it would only get worse from there. The following year 2006 there were 5 hurricanes with only 2 being major. 2005 still holds the record for the number of hurricanes. I remember at the time the head of the Weather Channel tried to explain to people that this could NOT be predicted, he was roundly criticized as a CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER by the cult of climate change. I use statics a lot in my job and you can make the data say whatever you. This is why I want to see the following in a study where did the data come from, year, location, and agency. Example I use the weather data from 1816 to compare to 2016. I then make predictions for 2023 based on this. 1816 was the year without a summer, look it up. Or the Famine of 1879 another weather event.

  17. No climate model has ever been able to accurately predict climate that has actually happened (historical) rather then predict climate that will happen. One of the major problems with climate change speculation is that most scientists only go back 100 years or so rather then looking at trends over millennia or epochs. When you take a historical perspective of climate rather then the 'oh my god, it is raining outside, we are all going to die' perspective then maybe some accuracy will finally creep into the climate debate (bloody unlikely I know).

  18. The author of this channel promotes collaboration with Russian scientists claiming they have no responsibility for the war Russia continues in Ukraine.
    But it's totally not true. Every time one collaborates with Russian researchers you help to:
    – develop new poisons like Novichok
    – create new unmanned flying machines to kill people
    – find new efficient ways for propaganda to work in freshly occupied territories
    – establish new innovations to save Russian economy from sanctions

    There are no protests from the side of Russian researchers regarding the war. The only protest letters were signed by diaspora – Russian speaking academic community living abroad. While inside Russia there were numerous war support memos signed by hundreds of university presidents and directors of research institutes.

    STOP SUPPORTING RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
    BAN RUSSIAN SCIENCE

  19. You rule out the probability that; if you pay people to find the answer, they will find an answer even if one does not exist.

  20. how far did it all gone? a woman with non native english is explaining for all morons/cretins/imbeciles (charlatans like al gore or all those c–k s—–s that consider themselves guardians of environment incl lobbyists an so called politicians) that climate system of our planet is no easy subject to predict/define – and there is no evidence our civilization might have/has perturbed it – something a 7 year old kid understand – it makes you cry

  21. LOL sue the fossil fuel industry for a flooded street? They better get ready to sue everyone who has used fossil fuels – they're the ones that burned it.

  22. Watch "Donald E. Scott: Birkeland Currents & Weather | Thunderbolts" on YouTube
    https://youtu.be/pOhvVRjt3Ec

    Has any of the climate model scientists considered the six other inputs from the sun 🤔 ?
    Why are they still using CMIP5 when CMIP6 takes into account those inputs.
    The Sun controls climate…
    If CO2 was the driver of heat, why is my beer or soda not hot in the refrigerator?
    CO2 is plant food. More CO2 equals plants needing less water. Why do people want to starve plants anyway 🤔
    150 years of climate prediction and NOT one has come true.

  23. Thanks for this informative video. A big problem for me is how the extreme weather caused by man-made climate change makes us focus on only one potential cause and makes us ignore other potential causes which makes it far more likely that we will not solve the problems at hand. Good examples are the Australian fires of 2019 that were most likely caused by an Indian Ocean Dipole, the lack of pre-burn and fires caused by humans. Another example is California where something like 78 per cent of fires is caused by humans and most of the rest by electrical wires and bad infrastructure. By blaming everything on man-made climate change some of the real issues never get addressed.

  24. Is the climate changing? Yes. Is it an emergency? No. Does it require action that hurts our economy? No. Is it used by special interests to further their political gains? Yes. Is it a fraud? Yes. Has the "data" being used been doctored and "adjusted"? Yes.

  25. Hi Sabine, According to the "Encyclopedia of Natural Diasasters" severe weather events have been prevalent in previous decades and in previous centuries, with no obvious increase in frequency or severity in recent times. Floods, droughts, cyclones, hurricanes, ice storms and blzzards etc are all promulgated in this volume, giving dates times and places going back hundreds of years.
    Surely this hard data cannot be ignored when assessing the contribution that increases in atmospheric C02 has made (since about 1850) in affecting world climate ?

  26. Dear Sabine, you're wonderful in your work; maybe the back problems come from posture and or shoe/heel issues and or one leg ever so slightly longer and or one side of your back imbalanced by missing a lumbar vertebra near your tailbone. My ex-wife had this problem as by missing completely the lowest lumbar vertebrae near her tailbone; she was literally weaker on one side. The chiropractor told her to exercise with deep knee-bends and sit on those big rubber balls and do the same to strengthen her muscles around that structural weak spot to avoid lower back problems as well as minimize her high heel usage. It worked. In your video's you're a lovely and highly attractive and intelligent woman but you look like your "out of wack" as we say in the USA: YOU HAVE POOR POSTURE which is a precursor to back/joint/feet pain. Check out as well to see if you have a curvature of the spine: a scoliosis. This is quite common more so in women then men. Exercise and stretching and strengthening the muscles around the weak parts can keep the curvature from increasing and sometimes decrease it or maybe you still might be a candidate for a body brace which might correct it. Most young people are screened for it as teens and more girls than boys have the problem and its corrected by a body brace of a few years to make one's posture good and well. The most radical treatment is surgery but most surgeons don't want to do anything out of making the condition worse until the curvature is so bad that it threatens one's life by interfering with organs like kidneys and livers etc.

  27. Makes me wonder if these climate models show fewer and less extreme results than reality because they are a little tweaked and capped to underestimate, so as to avoid occasional run away dooms day level results that look a bit discrediting of the science of modeling climate.

  28. The truth is that extreme events like major hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, heat waves, wild fires, are actually less frequent by roughly 90% in the last century or so. This can be verified by looking at newspaper articles from the times in question. The mid 1930's was the hottest time in last century and thousands died world wide. It is worthy of note, that CO2 was much lower when these major disasters were happening. It was much worse before the Industrial Revolution started. The planet has been cooling for almost 8000yrs of recent history, really it has likely been cooling since it formed. It may get hotter for a thousand years or so, or it may continue getting cooler or stay this temperature. What is almost guaranteed is that at some point, it will get very cold, and stay cold for 100,000yrs or so. So cold that ice, miles thick, will cover most of the northern hemisphere and close to the south pole area. What is being done to prepare for this? It could happen sooner than expected, or in 5,000yrs.

  29. Dr Hossenfelder, tell them what CO2 does to us, and to your dog
    And your Perrier,
    Is O2, there is no other source of O2 than CO2, through a process that happens in solar machines, the plants, we can live without CO2 for awhile, without O2, not very long
    Spendid lessons, splendid
    Keep educate us, thank you

  30. Why are real extreme actual events like Earth Quakes and tsunami and volcanoes never mentioned? Aren't those things the REAL cause of hot days and large mountain runoff due to rain and mass human migration? Love watching your videos, makes ya think.

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